About this blog

Sport lends itself to statistics, opinions and a lot of money. Interestingly, these three rarely tally. I aim to shed a little light on the area of sports statistics to prove (or otherwise) the perceived wisdoms of sport.

This blog is for day-to-day observations. My other blog, www.minto.net (see links on the right) is where I put longer pieces of research.

Saturday, November 24, 2007

Englishman for the England job?

After Steve McCLaren, who next? The debate about foreign coaches has started again, with Arsene Wenger saying that it should be an Englishman for the England job. Perhaps he just wants to keep the spotlight off him, but does he have a point?

Of the UEFA teams - the teams in Europe - there are 54 teams in total, with 19 foreign coaches, 33 domestic and 2 jobs pending (Republic of Ireland being the other).

So, with over a third (35%) of coaches being foriegn, is England being naive to think that post-Sven, England should be managed by an Englishman? Notably, the countries that are currently seen as the "powerhouses" of Europe - France, Italy, Germany - are managed by domestic, not foreign coaches. Smaller countries tend to have foreign managers - Liechenstein, Moldova, Cyprus and Albania are in the 19. Perhaps an English manager isn't a terrible idea, it just needs to be a better manager.

Wednesday, November 21, 2007

Telegraph need a primer in pofit and loss

Interesting piece in the Telegraph. Apparently if England don't make it into Euro 2008, it wouldn't just mean a summer off from all that football nonsense and Steve McClaren out of a job:
According to one study, by the Centre for Economic and Business Research, based on an examination of the impact of the 2006 World Cup and Euro 2004, the effect of non-qualification could be as much as £1 billion.
Sadly, the basis for this huge figure is hard to dissect, as the report isn't on their website. But the Telegraph summarises some of the main points. The impact would be in advertising revenues, drink sales and betting - as much as £300m was spent in advertising during the 2006 World Cup, and Euro 2008 would give pubs etc a £285m boost.

So where's the loss? Can't see it yet. All we are looking at here is expected increases that might happen. As far as I remember, that's not a loss. It's a fall in expected profits. Profit warnings aren't much fun, but they are different to a loss. In each area money will still be spent: advertisers will display adverts in the matches, they will just be charged less; people will still go to the pub to watch France vs Portugal, they just won't drink as much; people will still bet.

In short - money will be made, just not as much. If I promise to give you £100 for getting an A in an exam, but £50 for a B or less, if you get a B you've still made money.

But "less money will be made if England lose" isn't such a good headline, is it?

Monday, November 19, 2007

Import - but no talk of export

I have just got back from Paris, and a fine journey it is too from the new St Pancras. But as we took a taxi through the Hausmann boulevards, I couldn't help thinking of French football and radio, and it struck a nerve about the English game.

The Premiership foreign players debate rumbles on and on. The Sunday Times had a good synthesis of the arguments, but as nostalgic old players chip in, no real solution is apparent apart from quotas as a means of making the England team competitive.

Hang on. Quotas? As in restrictions? Aside from being against European employment law and therefore pointless, when do quotas work?

And here is where France comes in. France are the most successful European team of recent years. And French music, in general, sucks. Stay with me here.

Quotas haven't helped French music. Radio stations in France must play Francophone music as 40% of their music. And the effect has been patchy. French music stars such as Air and MC Solaar haven't flourished because of this quota system, they have emerged despite it. All quotas have done is encourage flabby imitations of US and English acts. Quotas are nonsense.

And French football? The team during its most successful period had players scattered across leagues in Europe. Home-grown talent, yes. Unable to fashion a team because they are in different leagues? No.

In England we should worry more about whether young players are developing properly and have facilities, rather than the composition of our league. If a generation of young English kids grow up wanting to be Cesc Fabregas or Christiano Ronaldo, then fine.

Also, why aren't we encouraging our players to play abroad, in Spain, Germany or Italy? It's worked for France and Brazil.

It is also highly unlikely that English players will not flourish in the Premiership. The weather, language and culture are in their favour. But put the idea of quotas to bed forever. It's a legal and economic non-starter.

P.S. The headline scare-story: At the start of the Premiership in 1992, just 10 players in the starting lineups for the first weekend were foreign. Of the 220 players who started Premier League matches last weekend, only 77 were English.

And, lest we forget, in 1992, England won the European championship, due to all the English talent at home. Oh, that's right. They didn't qualify. Whoops.

Friday, November 2, 2007

Manflation

"Chelsea are furious". Really? Why? Sports minister Gerry Sutcliffe points out that their wage bill is huge, but gets a few figures wrong.

Sutcliffe told delegates at the FT Sports Industry Summit yesterday morning that Terry earns £150,000 a week, that Chelsea are "£250m in the red" and that United had increased ticket prices by 13%. Both clubs disputed his figures.
Yes, ManU have increased their ticket prices for a season ticket by 10.87%.

Hang on... 11 per cent isn't exactly in line with inflation. That hasn't been up to 11 per cent since, ooh, 1981. Why ManU fans put up with this I have no idea.