Fink big

Move over Opta. The Times yesterday launched Fink Tank, their unique rankings of football players in the Premiership. A heaven of statisics, I'm going to take a closer look later. First, a few observations:

1) Introducing the rankings with the line: "How did Fink Tank do it? We used a multivariate Poisson log-normal model. I hope you find that information helpful." was pretty off-putting. Only real serious mathmaticians care about running several Poisson distributions as a method of removing anomalies - if that's what it is...

2) The model works by identifying "the relationship between goals scored and every kick of the ball made by every player for every club". I presume this takes into account defending as well as attacking. But it mention tackles, pressure that indirectly relates to goals, or other parts of football. A more detailed methodology is needed.

3) It penalises players for lack of time on the pitch - which is strange, as some players are used deliberately as a "super-sub" or impact player, and their lack of pitch-time is a virtue.

Here is the methodology:

The Fink Tank Predictor provides forecasts and ranking systems for English and European club football, based on a statistical model of matches based on more than five years of football scores.

In looking at player rankings for this season, the phrase “time-adjusted points” means the number of points the player would have added to an average team in the full season, compared with an average replacement. The points are then adjusted to reflect the amount of time spent on the pitch – minimum 400 minutes.

I'll take a closer look in my longer, research blog later. Time to crunch a few numbers...

Big wins, big losses, big deal

Again, much is being made of the England win over the West Indies - England's 3rd biggest win, the Windies biggest ever loss. I feel alone in thinking - so what? It's a exceptionally poor Windies team, so it's hardly earth-shattering news. I prefered the record that it was the coldest temperature ever recorded at a test - 7 degress C. Welcome to England in May.

Many papers prefer to focus on the fact that Michael Vaughan has equalled Peter May's record for most test wins as England captain - in 7 fewer tests too. It's a good record to be sure, but paltry compared to other countries - he's still a long way behind Steve Waugh's 41 wins or Clive Lloyds 36.

Is England's batting really that great?

Maybe so...

The current series between England and the West Indies is looking very one-sided. Records are being set - or so the press would have us believe. In the first test, four England players scored centuries, which was the second time ever that had happened - for England (first time was 1938). Other countries have had 4x100 in an innings more recently than that, but never mind.

Don't get me wrong - it's good. But let's look at the bigger picture.

In the second test (still being played) England have racked up another massive total, with Kevin Pietersen hitting 226 - which every paper has reported is the highest England innings since Graham Gooch's 333 vs India in 1990. (What we should ask is why has it taken so long, given that every other major test nation has had at least one 270+ innings in the last 10 years...)

So are England such a good batting line-up? Or is this a weak set of West Indies bowlers?

The Windies best bowler is Corey Collymore, ranked 10 in the world. Their next bowlers are ranked 31, 38, 41, 43, 45 and 49 - and the 31st and 41st aren't playing. Collymore is not that great a bowler either, with 86 wickets in 27 tests at an average of 31. Nothing too scary there.

England in contrast have 4 batsmen in the top 15 in the world, with Pietersen at 3.

And the conclusion is... well, I hardly need to spell it out.

So when the papers make such a deal about the biggest score since X or most centuries in a series since Y, remember that a) it's a mismatch and b) it's always the biggest something since one date in the past. That's the way history goes.

Sven

Apparently Sven is the most successful England coach ever, according to the Sunday Times. I happily debunk this myth on my research blog, but it's worth bearing in mind for all those Manchester City fans who might get Mr Eriksson as their manager next season. This one has been as on and off as a relationship with, well, Sven. Apparently, he now will marry Nancy. Good luck to them both.

Sven is actually quite a good domestic manager, with quite a haul of trophies inlcuding the Serie A with Lazio. But is it worth hiring him given the inevitable publicity and saga? That's something even the best economist might find hard to measure...

Random Sven fact: Eriksson is so far the only manager who was won the Double (League and Cup in the same season), in three different countries: Sweden, Portugal and Italy. (Thanks Wikipedia)